Agent-based Simulation of Geo-Political Conflict
نویسندگان
چکیده
The intelligence analysis task of anticipating crises and providing decision makers with reasonable (supportable, explainable) possible futures is extremely difficult. To perform this task, a team of analysts must consider the political, economic, and military aspects of national governments and non-governmental organizations. This paper describes an agent-based simulation framework, the Advanced Global Intelligence and Leadership Experiment (AGILE), for building executable models for conducting regional analysis. AGILE is a full-featured simulation framework that enables the specification of simulation parameters, models and agents, lets the user define and run simulations under varying conditions, and enables post-run analysis of the results. In this paper, we describe the system implementation, and some examples of its use in a pseudo-operational setting.
منابع مشابه
Simulation of The Impact of Income Distribution on Social Unrest Using Agent-based Modeling Approach
Abstract Poverty and various forms of inequality, including class, gender, racial, and ethnic inequalities, are caused by imbalances of power relations and make society prone to social instability and unrest; Inequalities that are by-products of the growing power imbalances between the rich and the poor. The problems of poverty and inequality are inextricably linked to powerful economic and p...
متن کاملPower, Resources, and Violence in Contemporary Conflict: Artificial Evidence
Traditionally, approaches to conflict analysis have underlined the importance of a systems theoretic perspective. However, recent studies of contemporary conflicts have been often dominated by mono-causal thinking. This paper emphasizes the importance of a complex systems approach to conflict analysis by presenting an agent-based social simulation implementation of a simple – although not trivi...
متن کاملMobilizing for Change: Simulating Political Movements in Armed Conflicts
Theories on the establishment and propagation of political movements through mobilization have emerged and evolved over the last half century. Among the major theoretical frameworks that have been advanced are resource mobilization theory, political process theory, and culture theory. However, despite these developments, relatively few methodological approaches have applied bottom-up computatio...
متن کاملConflict and Cooperation - the Integration and Balance of Geo-politics and Geo-economics
The deepening of global economic integration challenge the traditional concept of geopolitics, and thus put a profound impact on the inter-State conflict and cooperation situations. Some scholars argue that the traditional geopolitics is based on conflict and confrontation, while the geo-economics is based on cooperation, Therefore, currently we should take the geo-economic thought as theoretic...
متن کاملسوژگی ژئوپلیتیک حزب کارگران کردستان ترکیه در بین النهرین شمالی
Abstract: Although concept of subject position and political subjectivity, roots in political sociology , But the study, operationalized these concepts in the fragile geopolitical context in the Middle East, and PKK. In view of the artificial boundaries of agreements the early twentieth century and fluidity ethnic boundaries in Mesopotamia countries, conflict of identity – territory, the fun...
متن کامل